A MEASUREMENT STUDY OF THE ASYMMETRICAL IMPACTS OF THE PUBLIC EXPENDITURE POLICY ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN IRAQ FOR THE PERIOD 2004-2021 USING (BOOTSTRAP NARDL)
This study aims at testing the asymmetrical impacts of the expenditure policy through its constituents on the economic sectors which are regarded as guaranteeing a real economic development in the Iraqi economy. The Non-Liner Autoregressive Distributed Lag NARDL has been used to create the critical values of the samples less than 30 observations of all the study variables since this model allows for the study of symmetry in the short and long-term relations. In other words, the impact of positive changes can be separated from that of negative changes of the independent variable on the dependent one. The researchers have relied on the annual data belonging to the Iraqi Central Bank for the dependent variable (The gross domestic product by the current prices expressing the economic growth in Iraq during the period from 2004-2021 and has been interpreted by means of the interpretation variables (operational expenses and investment expenses) of annual data expressing the public expenditure police in Iraq throughout the period of the study. It has been found out that the gross domestic product by the current prices responds to change (by positive values) and by a value larger for the negative changes in the investment expenditure during the study period., in addition to disparity as the positive and negative of the operational expenses have asymmetrical effect on the gross domestic product by the current prices. Finally, the product is largely affected by the negative changes of the operational expenses compared to the positive changes.
Public Expenditure Policy, Economic Development, Bootstrap NARDL Model.