THE IMPACT OF FOOD PRICE FLUCTUATIONS AND COVID-19 ON FOOD PRICE STABILITY IN SUMATERA, INDONESIA
Food price fluctuations could affect food stability during the Covid-19 pandemic. This study aimed to analyze the long and short-term effects of food accessibility and Covid -19 on price stability or inflation in Sumatra. It used primary data for the monthly 2010M01-2020M12 period and secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency and the Ministry of Agriculture. The data were analyzed using Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) -Pooled Mean Group (PMG) model. The results showed that both consumer rice and corn prices, except cassava, had a positive and significant short-term effect on food inflation in each province. In Sumatra, the effect was long and short-term aggregately. However, Covid -19 only indicated a negative and significant short-term relationship. These results indicate the necessity to optimize the supply chain system to maintain food supply sustainability and strengthen the farmers’ adaptability to climate change.
Food Accessibility, Covid -19, Food Stability, PARDL-PMG Model