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Original Research

THE IMPACT OF FOOD PRICE FLUCTUATIONS AND COVID-19 ON FOOD PRICE STABILITY IN SUMATERA, INDONESIA

RIZAL RAHMAN H TEAPON 1, HARIANTO 2, HERMANTO SIREGAR 3, and WIDYASTUTIK 4.

Vol 17, No 10 ( 2022 )   |  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7152270   |   Author Affiliation: Doctoral Student of Agricultural Economics Study Program, Faculty of Economics and Management, Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia 1; Faculty of Economics and Management, Bogor Agricultural University, Jln Raya Dramaga IPB Bogor, Indonesia 2,3,4.   |   Licensing: CC 4.0   |   Pg no: 01-08   |   To cite: RIZAL RAHMAN H TEAPON, et al., (2022). THE IMPACT OF FOOD PRICE FLUCTUATIONS AND COVID-19 ON FOOD PRICE STABILITY IN SUMATERA, INDONESIA. 17(10), 01–08. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7152270   |   Published on: 06-10-2022

Abstract

Food price fluctuations could affect food stability during the Covid-19 pandemic. This study aimed to analyze the long and short-term effects of food accessibility and Covid -19 on price stability or inflation in Sumatra. It used primary data for the monthly 2010M01-2020M12 period and secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency and the Ministry of Agriculture. The data were analyzed using Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) -Pooled Mean Group (PMG) model. The results showed that both consumer rice and corn prices, except cassava, had a positive and significant short-term effect on food inflation in each province. In Sumatra, the effect was long and short-term aggregately. However, Covid -19 only indicated a negative and significant short-term relationship. These results indicate the necessity to optimize the supply chain system to maintain food supply sustainability and strengthen the farmers’ adaptability to climate change.


Keywords

Food Accessibility, Covid -19, Food Stability, PARDL-PMG Model