DYNAMICS OF STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY IN THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION AND THEIR IMPACT ON INDONESIAN MARITIME SECURITY: ANALYSIS OF SOUTH CHINA MARINE DISPUTES WITH ESTIMATIVE METHODOLOGY AND NATIONAL SECURITY APPROACHES
The South China Sea (LTS) is a relatively closed sea and is surrounded by at least eight countries, namely China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Brunei, the Philippines, and Taiwan. Indonesia is not involved or directly affected by the South China Sea dispute involving China and one of the ASEAN members, the Philippines. However, China's rejection of the PCA (Permanent Court of Arbitration) ruling in favor of the Philippines had an impact on Indonesia. Based on this strategic environmental background, the researcher conducted a study entitled Strategic Environmental Security Dynamics in the Asia Pacific Region and Its Impact on Indonesian Maritime Security: South China Sea Dispute Analysis with Estimation Methodology and National Security Approaches. This study uses an estimation methodology that relies on three prediction mechanisms, namely: extrapolation (extrapolation), projection (projection), and forecasting (forecasting). Based on the results of the study, it was found that the LTS dispute has the potential to become a conflict if the conflict in the region involves countries in Southeast Asia and East Asia, the use of military instruments by the parties involved in the LTS dispute. , the involvement of major countries in the conflict, and there are no relatively credible social institutions or instruments to resolve disputes in the South China Sea. The recommendation in this study is that Indonesia can play a key role in creating stability in the region as well as building communication and diplomacy with countries holding the UN veto power or major countries from other regions.
Dynamic, Strategic, Security, South China Sea and Maritime