MEASURING AND ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF THE COMPONENTS OF PUBLIC SPENDING ON THE COMPONENTS OF THE TRADE BALANCE IN IRAQ FOR THE PERIOD (2004-2020)
The issue of public spending and the trade balance is one of the important topics that aroused the interest of researchers, as the research aims to measure and analyze the impact of public spending on the trade balance in Iraq for the period (2004-2020), as well as analyze the structure of public spending in terms of (current and investment) and the trade balance with both parts (exports and imports).The results of the research proved the existence of a direct and moral relationship between current spending and exports in the long term, and this means that the increase in long-term current spending by (1) billion dinars leads to an increase in exports in Iraq by (793) million dinars, while other factors remain constant. And at the level of significance (0.0041). This on the one hand agrees with the research hypothesis and on the other hand is contrary to the economic theory which says that there is an inverse relationship between current spending and exports. The results of the research proved the existence of a direct and moral relationship between current spending (CS) and imports (IM) in the long term, as the increase in current spending in the long term by (1) billion dinars leads to an increase in imports by (702) million dinars, while other factors remain fixed, and at a significant level (1%), and this agrees with the research hypothesis and the economic theory which says that there is a direct relationship between current spending and imports. The researcher's relied on the inductive approach to use modern standard models based on the Autoregressive Distributed Deceleration (ARDL) methodology, as the annual data for the period (2004-2020) was used to measure and analyze the results of the impact of public spending on the trade balance through the use of the statistical program (Eviews.9).
Public Expenditure, Trade Balance, Autoregressive (ARDL).