ANALYZING AND MEASURING THE IMPACT OF FLUCTUATIONS IN OIL REVENUES IN DIVERSIFYING THE DISTRIBUTIONAL SECTORS IN IRAQ FOR THE PERIOD (2004-2020)
Oil is an international strategic commodity whose prices are difficult to control by the producing and consuming countries, as it is governed by many factors, including political, economic, technological and environmental. The fluctuations of oil prices, especially the state of decline, are an obstacle to the rentier producing countries to finance and implement their economic and social strategic plans, for example, the drop in crude oil prices. It reflected negatively on oil revenues, and then on the Iraqi economy, as it is one of the rentier countries that depends on crude oil exports for all of its revenues, and this appears through the link between the general budget and the volume of oil revenues. One of the most important objectives of the research is to clarify the impact of fluctuations in oil revenues on the diversification of commodity sectors in the Iraqi economy for the period (2004-2020), and it included several recommendations that would enable the Iraqi economy to overcome crises by adopting a strong production base and diversifying sources of income as well as establishing sovereign wealth funds. Research on the method of blending the descriptive analytical method with the inductive method for the use of modern models based on the Autoregressive Distributed Deceleration Model (ARDL) methodology. The results of the research: there is a relationship in the long term and the existence of a positive and moral relationship between oil revenues and distributive sectors.
oil prices, economic diversification, oil revenues, distributive sectors, auto regression (ARDL).