Overview

Original Research

AVAILABILITY OF CORN COMMODITY IN ACHIEVING FOOD SELF-SUFFICIENCY: DYNAMIC SYSTEMS MODEL APPROACH

NUR MUTTAQIEN ZUHRI 1, ENDANG SITI RAHAYU 2, KUSNANDAR 3, and MOHAMAD HARISUDIN 4.

Vol 17, No 12 ( 2022 )   |  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7500987   |   Author Affiliation: Doctoral Program in Agriculture Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Sebelas Maret University, Surakarta, Indonesia 1; Faculty of Agriculture, Sebelas Maret University, Surakarta, Indonesia 2,3,4.   |   Licensing: CC 4.0   |   Pg no: 2084-2099   |   To cite: NUR MUTTAQIEN ZUHRI, et al., (2022). AVAILABILITY OF CORN COMMODITY IN ACHIEVING FOOD SELF-SUFFICIENCY: DYNAMIC SYSTEMS MODEL APPROACH. 17(12), 2084–2099. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7500987   |   Published on: 23-12-2022

Abstract

The rice, corn, and soybean Special Efforts Program (UPSUS PAJALE) is a government program administered by the Ministry of Agriculture that aims to achieve long-term self-sufficiency. Corn is a strategic commodity due to its use as feed, food, and industrial raw material. Corn demand is rising in tandem with population growth, so it must be maintained to avoid scarcity. Dynamic systems can forecast demand and availability and forecast future models. Secondary data was used in the data collection method from 2012 to 2021. This study examines the factors that have a direct impact on corn balance and creates scenarios using the system dynamic model. Powersim Studio 10 software is used in system dynamic modeling to simulate current conditions and create several alternative scenarios in an effort to increase corn production, while the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) method is used to check model validation. The results of the study show that based on actual conditions (Scenario 0), self-sufficiency will never be achieved. Self-sufficiency will be successful in 2021 if the productivity increase scenario is implemented (Scenario 1) and the use of dryer technology (Scenario 2).

Keywords

Self-Sufficiency, Balance-Sheet, Corn, Modeling